Dubai Gold Prices Edge Toward Dh500 as Markets Price In 80% Chance of Fed Rate Cut

Dubai’s gold market inched closer to the Dh500 mark on Tuesday as traders sharply increased their expectations of a US Federal Reserve interest-rate cut next month. The 24K price rose to Dh498.75, up from Dh495 the previous day, while 22K moved to Dh461.75 compared with Monday’s Dh458.50. The uptick mirrors momentum in global bullion markets, where sentiment has shifted following weaker US economic indicators and growing confidence that the Fed may act at its December 9–10 meeting.

Gold prices in Dubai have moved within a tight band throughout November. After reaching Dh504.75 per gram on November 12, rates softened gradually, bottoming out at Dh475.25 on November 4. This trend reflects the global market’s consolidation phase, with international gold holding above $4,380 an ounce after marking record highs in October. Despite minor cooling, gold remains up roughly 56% for the year, supported by geopolitical tensions and concerns about fiscal stability across major economies.

Traders are now pricing in nearly an 80% probability that the Federal Reserve will deliver another rate cut next month. This sentiment strengthened after signals from top Fed officials. New York Fed President John Williams suggested a near-term cut is possible, while Governor Christopher Waller reinforced those expectations. The Fed has already reduced rates twice once in September and again in October though policymakers remain divided on further easing.

Gold typically benefits from lower interest rates since it does not yield interest, making it more competitive when bond yields fall.

Adding to market uncertainty this week is the release of delayed US economic data, pushed back by the recent government shutdown. September retail sales and producer-price figures are scheduled for release on Tuesday, with jobless claims due Wednesday. Retail data is expected to show moderation as households continue to feel the squeeze of high prices. With payroll reports still unavailable, jobless claims will serve as a crucial indicator of labour-market health as the Fed sorts through outdated and incomplete data.

As rate-cut expectations rise and economic signals remain mixed, traders will be watching closely to see whether Dubai gold finally breaks through the Dh500 mark.